Blu-ray disks have been known to be slowly approaching the mainstream market, and it seems likely that DVDs will progressively lose more ground, until the former finally scores quite a massive shipment figure four years form now.
Even though Blu-ray disks haven't been getting cheaper at the speed most people may like, they should become increasingly affordable.
No doubt the existence of the BDXL format will prompt faster price cuts, until Blu-ray disks really do become mainstream products and start to seriously replace DVDs.
This probably won't happen in 2011, but progress will still be made, according to Futuresource, especially over the following years.
By the analysts' estimates, about 400 million pre-recorded Blu-ray disks will be sold next year, a figure that will grow to over 2 billion by 2014.
2012 will be a the first time of leap in this area, although sales of stereo-3D TVs and shutter glasses are already being boosted by means of bundled movies.
“Bundling discs with hardware is also a factor, and the launch of 3D BD titles has added extra importance to this. As 3D is ideally suited to the BD delivery platform, this is clearly a long-term opportunity for the industry to further sustain consumer interest in packaged entertainment media,” said Fiona Hoy, market analyst at Futuresource.
“From 2012 we are going to see very strong demand for 3D content, which will fuel additional growth,” she added.
“As a result of this output expansion, BD capacity utilisation will hit nearly 80% in the U.S. during Q4 of this year and 75% in Europe,” said Michael Boreham, senior consultant disc manufacturing and storage media at Futuresource.
“This is about as high as it can comfortably get, and given the continued market expansion expected over the next few years, which is being driven by growing player ownership and falling disc prices, the industry will need to invest further in 2011 to prevent peak quarter disc shortages,” he concluded.
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